Startup failure rate 2026: what shutdown and runway data show
Graduation and shutdown rates should set how much you raise and how long you plan for. Both numbers, with the period each one covers, in a single table.
Startup failure rate 2026: what shutdown and runway data show
No publisher has released a measured startup failure rate 2026 figure. The dated evidence: 29.5% of consensus seed rounds went out of business versus 39.4% of other seed rounds, current to 30 September 2025 (PitchBook), and the median wait from seed to Series A ran 616 days in Q2 2025 (Carta).
Two numbers should set how much you raise and how long you plan for: the share of seed companies that reach a Series A, and how long that takes. Most founders pick a runway number first and never look up either one.
This page is refreshed on a cycle. The data underneath it is quarterly, and one key series is older than that. As of 7 August 2026, the newest hard figures below are PitchBook's seed graduation and failure rates current to 30 September 2025, Carta's Q2 2025 Series A timing, and Carta's Q1 2024 shutdown count. Every number below carries its period.
The startup failure rate 2026 table, with the period on every figure
There is no single failure number, and the gap between the strong and weak halves of the seed market is the whole story.
| Metric | Reading | Period covered | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seed deals that reached a Series A | About 53% of consensus deals, about 28% of others | Current to 30 Sep 2025 | PitchBook |
| Seed rounds that went out of business or bankrupt | 29.5% of consensus deals, 39.4% of others | Current to 30 Sep 2025 | PitchBook |
| Seed deal outcomes overall | Roughly one third failed, one third returned less than invested capital, one third positive | Current to 30 Sep 2025 | PitchBook |
| Median wait from seed to Series A | 616 days, slightly more than 20 months | Q2 2025 | Carta |
| Runway Carta tells founders to plan for | At least 24 to 30 months (a recommendation, not a measurement) | 2026 guidance | Carta |
| Startup closures recorded by Carta | 254, up 58% year over year | Q1 2024 | Carta |
Two columns matter equally: the reading and the period. A figure current to September 2025 is the best answer available today, not a description of last week.
Seed to Series A graduation is two numbers, not one
Which seed round you raised predicts survival better than any generic failure statistic.
PitchBook found that about 53% of US consensus seed deals went on to raise a Series A, against about 28% of non-consensus deals, and that 29.5% of consensus seed rounds eventually went out of business or bankrupt versus 39.4% of other rounds, with data current to 30 September 2025 (PitchBook). A near two-fold spread sits inside every "X% of startups fail" headline.
One caveat most pages quoting these rates drop: PitchBook excludes its more recent seed vintages from graduation comparisons, because those companies have not had enough time to raise a Series A yet. Graduation rates always describe older cohorts, never companies that raised last year.
Runway benchmarks 2026: how long does seed money last
Plan for the gap between rounds, not for your burn multiple.
Carta measured a 616 day median interval between a seed round and a Series A in Q2 2025, slightly more than 20 months (Carta). That is the median, so half of the companies that graduated took longer.
Carta's 2026 fundraising guidance calls 12 to 18 months a common runway target but recommends planning for at least 24 to 30 months, precisely because the time between rounds has stretched (Carta). Treat the 24 to 30 month figure as advice, not as a measured market average.
Two adjustments push the honest number past that 20 month median:
- The raise itself takes three to six months. Carta tells founders to start before cash is nearly exhausted for exactly this reason (Carta).
- Old runway assumptions have decayed. Carta's 2025 seed analysis describes early-stage companies running leaner teams on longer fundraising timelines, which makes historical runway rules less reliable (Carta).
Startup shutdown data: what cannot be claimed about 2026
Anyone telling you shutdowns are up in 2026 is guessing.
The strongest explicit closure count available is historical: Carta recorded 254 startup closures in Q1 2024, a 58% increase from Q1 2023 (Carta). No comparable 2026 count has been published in the Carta, PitchBook and AngelList set, so a 2026 rise can be neither established nor ruled out.
There is a second reason to distrust any shutdown headline. AngelList points out that startup failure is not binary, because many companies keep operating while stagnant, so a clean shutdown rate understates how many outcomes are actually bad (AngelList).
A shutdown count is the smallest failure number you will ever see. The companies that quietly stop growing never get counted.
Startup survival rate, converted into a raise-size rule
Stop treating these numbers as trivia and let them set the size of your ask.
- Size the round for 24 to 30 months, not 12 to 18. That is Carta's own recommendation, given the lengthening gap between rounds (Carta).
- Start raising with runway left. Carta tells founders to tie the amount raised to milestones, include a buffer for unexpected costs, and begin before cash is nearly gone, because the process takes three to six months (Carta).
- Treat round quality as a survival variable. The spread between roughly 53% and 28% graduation, and between 29.5% and 39.4% failure, tracks which kind of seed round you raised (PitchBook).
Point three is the one that changes your Monday. Market data tells you what is normal; it does not tell you which funds are actually deploying into your stage and sector right now. Causo matches you to the investors most likely to fund you and drafts the outreach, which is the part a quarterly report cannot do.
For the deeper cuts, read the seed to Series A graduation rate benchmarks, check your plan against runway benchmarks at seed, and convert both into a target with how much to raise at seed.
FAQ
What percentage of startups fail in 2026? No source in this set publishes a measured 2026 failure rate, so any clean 2026 percentage you see is an estimate. The closest dated evidence is PitchBook's seed cohort analysis, current to 30 September 2025: roughly one third of seed deals failed outright, another third returned less than the capital invested, and the remaining third produced positive outcomes (PitchBook). Use that as your base rate until a 2026 count is published.
What percentage of startups fail after seed funding? It depends on the round, not on the average. PitchBook found that 29.5% of consensus seed rounds eventually went out of business or bankrupt, against 39.4% of other seed rounds, with data current to 30 September 2025 (PitchBook). AngelList adds that failure is not binary, because many companies keep operating while stagnant, so both figures understate the number of weak outcomes (AngelList).
How many seed startups raise a Series A? About 53% of US consensus seed deals went on to raise a Series A, against about 28% of non-consensus deals, per PitchBook data current to 30 September 2025 (PitchBook). PitchBook excludes its most recent seed vintages from that comparison because those companies have not had enough time to raise yet. There is no single graduation rate that applies to every seed company.
How long should a seed round last? Longer than the 12 to 18 months most founders plan. Carta's 2026 fundraising guidance calls 12 to 18 months a common target but recommends planning for at least 24 to 30 months, because the time between rounds has lengthened (Carta). Carta measured a 616 day median wait from seed to Series A in Q2 2025, slightly more than 20 months, before you add the three to six months the raise itself takes (Carta).
Are startup shutdowns increasing in 2026? Nobody can show that with published data. The most recent explicit closure count available is Carta's, which recorded 254 startup closures in Q1 2024, a 58% increase from Q1 2023 (Carta). No comparable 2026 count has been published in this source set, so a 2026 increase can be neither established nor ruled out.
Related on the hub
- AI Startup Funding This Quarter: Deals, Sizes, Valuations — Related fundraising basics guide.
- Traction metrics for VCs in 2026: what IC memos screen for — Related traction metrics guide.
- The H1 2026 AI startup funding report — Related fundraising basics guide.
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