Seed financial model SaaS: drivers-based template (2026)
Drivers-based seed financial model for SaaS founders, with CAC, churn, cohort MRR, hiring plan, and the sensitivity tab VCs now demand in 2026.
seed-three-statement-model.txt
Tab 1: Assumptions
- ACV/ARPA: ${{acv_usd}}
- New logos/month (month 1): {{new_logos_m1}}
- New-logo growth rate (MoM): {{new_logo_growth_mom_pct}}%
- Logo churn (monthly): {{logo_churn_monthly_pct}}%
- Gross revenue churn (monthly): {{gross_rev_churn_monthly_pct}}%
- Expansion (monthly, on retained base): {{expansion_monthly_pct}}%
- Blended CAC: ${{cac_usd}}
- CAC payback target (months): {{cac_payback_months}}
- Gross margin: {{gross_margin_pct}}%
- Starting cash: ${{starting_cash_usd}}
- Raise size: ${{raise_usd}}
- Pre-money valuation: ${{pre_money_usd}}
Tab 2: Cohort MRR build (month 1 to month 24)
- For each cohort, track: starting MRR, churned MRR, expansion MRR, ending MRR.
- Sum cohorts into total MRR, then x12 for ARR.
Tab 3: P&L
- Revenue = cohort-summed MRR
- COGS = hosting + customer success headcount
- S&M = (new logos x CAC)
- R&D = engineering headcount + tools
- G&A = finance, legal, ops
- EBITDA = Revenue, COGS, OpEx
Tab 4: Cash flow + balance sheet
- Starting cash, plus raise, minus burn = ending cash
- Runway (months) = ending cash / trailing-3-month average burn
Tab 5: Hiring plan
- Role, start month, fully-loaded cost, function (R&D / S&M / G&A)
Tab 6: Scenarios
- Base, Upside, Downside as separate columns driven from Tab 1 multipliers.
Tab 7: Sensitivity
- 2-variable grid: CAC payback (x-axis) vs monthly logo churn (y-axis), output = month-24 ARR and runway.
Variables · fill before sending
- acv_usdAnnual contract value per customer, e.g. 12000
- new_logos_m1New paying logos closed in month 1 of the model, e.g. 4
- new_logo_growth_mom_pctMonth-over-month growth in new logos, e.g. 10
- logo_churn_monthly_pctMonthly logo churn, e.g. 2.5
- gross_rev_churn_monthly_pctMonthly gross revenue churn, e.g. 2.0
- expansion_monthly_pctMonthly expansion on retained base, e.g. 1.5
- cac_usdBlended CAC across all channels, e.g. 6000
- cac_payback_monthsTarget months to recover CAC from gross margin, e.g. 14
- gross_margin_pctGross margin percent, e.g. 78
- starting_cash_usdCash in the bank the day you close, e.g. 250000
- raise_usdTotal seed raise, e.g. 3000000
- pre_money_usdPre-money valuation the round is priced at, e.g. 15000000
How to use it
- Always start month 1 of the forecast on real actuals. A clean month 1 that disagrees with your accounting is the first thing a seed VC will catch.
- Keep CAC, churn, and expansion as inputs, not formulas. If a VC asks "what if churn is 2x?", you change one cell, not twelve.
- Label any assumption that's macro-driven (e.g. "AI-category tailwind on inbound") separately so the reader can strip it out.
- Three scenarios, not one. Base, upside, downside. The sensitivity tab is on top of that, not a substitute.
- Tie hiring plan to revenue milestones, not calendar months. "Hire AE #2 at $40K MRR" is defensible. "Hire AE #2 in month 7" is not.